Aas 12-159 Space Object Maneuver Detection via a Joint Optimal Control and Multiple Hypothesis Tracking Approach

A critical requirement in achieving robust space situational awareness (SSA) is the ability to process and reduce the number of uncorrelated tracks (UCTs), which are newly acquired tracks on objects that do not associate (correlate) with any known objects in the space catalog.1 While there are many reasons for UCTs, a common source is that of a maneuvering space object. The ability to assess the possibility of maneuvers from UCT observations is therefore an important goal in SSA. Our approach to this problem, presented in this paper, is to first use a modern tracking system such as a multiple hypothesis tracker (MHT)2 to detect broken tracks and UCTs. If an object is not seen within a predicted gate and subsequently a UCT is generated by it, then we propose an optimal control framework, as a post-processor, for maneuver detection and track stitching. This work has its origin in the recent work of Holzinger and Scheeres.3 In this paper, we extend this work by first using a MHT to detect the possibility of a maneuver and then using an optimal control framework based on the ΔV cost functional (which is directly proportional to fuel-cost) as a post-processor to determine the feasibility of possible maneuvers. The method is most applicable to unannounced fuel-optimal maneuvers routinely conducted by space objects for tasks such as orbit maintenance and station-keeping.